Common Resources

Resources Magazine: The Limits to Ingenuity

When is ingenuity likely to help solve ecological problems? Is humanity’s ability to innovate its way around environmental problems relevant to how we think about conservation? I tackle these questions and contemplate the limits to ingenuity in a piece for the latest issue of Resources. Read the full article here.

Pipeline Safety and Keystone XL

The Premier of Alberta is in town promoting the Keystone XL pipeline. She fielded questions at the Brookings Institution, and regarding a question referring to last month’s spill in Arkansas said “these are very isolated incidents, and they don’t happen as often as people might suggest that they could.” There are plenty of data on pipeline spills which […]

Using Executive Action to Promote Climate Change Adaptation

Buried in the middle of climate’s extended shout-out during the State of the Union, President Obama pledged to direct his Cabinet to “to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable […]

Climate-Ready Coastal Development? A Model from Pelican Bay, Florida

Americans love the coast. We live there. We vacation there. Coastal areas generate substantial economic activity. But building on the coast is risky—storms and sea level rise threaten coastal development. Is there a model of development that allows us to enjoy all the ocean has to offer and yet reduces the risks from these hazards? […]

Responding to Natural Disasters—False Security or Damage Reduction?

Fire, floods, coastal storms, drought—the list of natural disasters that invoke billions in damage to communities and their economies is long and persistent. The tally of costs from Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast continues to mount, mirroring the multi-billion dollar price tags for other hurricane disasters. Yet, year after year, the US Army Corps of […]

Quantifying Uncertainty on Thin Ice

The IPCC’s fourth assessment report projecting sea level rise in 2100 of 18 to 59 cm excluded the contribution from ice sheets because the ice sheet models were not up to snuff. They still aren’t, but researchers Bamber and Aspinall at the University Bristol have found a work-around: structured expert judgment (SEJ). Their first results […]

Why the Climate Problem Requires a New Generation of Uncertainty Analysis

Over the past decade, the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into climate modeling has become generally recognized. The question is whether our current tools are up to the task. I’ve been looking at this question and my paper on it, “Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely,” has just been published […]

BP Settles - But the Story is Far from Over

Reports of a $4.5b settlement between BP and the federal government over criminal charges related to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill have emerged today. If the reports are correct, the settlement will be the largest criminal settlement in U.S. history. The criminal settlement in the Exxon Valdez disaster was only $150m, of which $125m was immediately […]

Sandy’s Unaccounted-for Costs

Hurricane Sandy and the system it is merging with are predicted to cause substantial damage across the mid-Atlantic. Damages from climate-related disasters, like this one, are on the rise, both within the US and worldwide. This is due in large part to more people, and therefore more buildings, locating in risky areas. It is also […]

Scientists Sentenced to 6 Years in Prison for “Optimizing” Uncertainty of L’Aquila Earthquake

A truism in risk management is that every disaster was predicted by someone, sometime, somehow. The 6 April 2009 earthquake that devastated the Italian city of L’Aquila was “predicted” (actually retrodicted: evidence was adduced post hoc) by anomalous toad behavior 70 km away. An earthquake in the Abruzzo region was also predicted by heretic scientist […]